Is Minnesota a presidential-election battleground?

As Barack Obama comes to St. Paul tonight to wrap up the primary season, Republicans are trying to claim that his rally "shows we picked the right city and the right state. It shows how competitive Minnesota's going to be." (Robert Duncan of the RNC, originally quoted in the Star Tribune). But that's a pretty substantial spin. I think Obama is campaigning here tonight because of its symbolism, to send a message to the Clinton and McCain campaigns that he's ready to begin his general election campaign. The polls indicate that Minnesota is not shaping up to be a particularly challenging race for Obama; two out of the three most recent polls show with with more than a 10-point lead over McCain, whom he has consistently led since February. Here are the numbers, courtesy of pollster.com

Pollster	Dates	N/Pop	McCain	Obama	Undecided	Other
Rasmussen	5/22/08	500 LV	38	53	5	4
SurveyUSA	5/16-18/08	600 RV	42	47	12	-
Star Tribune	5/12-15/08	1117 RV	38	51	11	-
Rasmussen	4/22/08	500 LV	38	52	5	5
SurveyUSA	4/11-13/08	535 RV	43	49	8	-
Rasmussen	3/19/08	500 LV	43	47	6	4
SurveyUSA	3/14-16/08	532 RV	47	46	7	-
SurveyUSA	2/26-28/08	609 RV	42	49	9	-
SurveyUSA	2/15-17/08	541 RV	40	55	6	-
Rasmussen	2/16/08	500 LV	38	53	5	4

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