Oil, the Environment, and the Economy

Norm Coleman has proposed a bill to allow drilling for oil in the Outer Continental Shelf. Janet at SCSU Scholars, of course, is thrilled -- but would more drilling actually be helpful?

I don't actually want to get into the environmental issues here, although there are many. In a different post, Janet has already stated her beliefs that our environment has no inherent value except as a resource for humans, and that once we've raised temperatures and flooded our coastal cities, we can simply adapt. It sounds crazy, but given such a huge gap in our worldviews I don't see any point in debating the issue.

What I do want to debate is the economic sense behind the conservative mantra "Drill here, drill now, pay less." The thought that more drilling is going to be a significant help to gas prices is laughable. Here are a few reasons why:

1. The largest impact on oil prices is skyrocketing consumption in India and China, which will only speed up in the future.
2. America lacks the refinery capacity to actually increase the production of gasoline. Drilling for more oil would not increase the amount of gasoline being produced in our country by one drop.
3. Coleman's own press release estimates that there are 2.8 billion barrels of oil that could be produced from the Outer Continental Shelf by 2025. Sound like a lot? If U.S. consumption were to hold steady at over 20 million barrels per day, Norm's bill would provide us with enough oil to last a whopping 135 days.

I have a suggestion for conservatives. Instead of looking resolutely back to the past and trying to figure out how to return there, why not recognize the challenges of the future and actually propose a plan to meet them? We can no longer find large enough oil deposits to make oil a viable energy source in the long term, EVEN IF we didn't care about the consequences to the environment. It's time to invest in alternative energies, raise gas mileage (CAFE) standards, and start building our cities in a way that does not require us to drive everywhere.

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