We all knew this was going to be a bad year for Republicans. However, I've just seen the first sign that indicates the GOP may be in trouble for a lot longer than just this single election. The following news came from Nevada this weekend:
Citing a lack of interest, the Nevada Republican Party has called off its state convention and will instead pick its delegates to the national convention by private conference call.To me, this indicates two major problems for the long-term health of the Republican Party:
The state party broke up its original convention in April when supporters of Ron Paul hijacked the proceedings and tried to elect delegates for their candidate to the national GOP convention in September. Party officials tried to reconvene on July 26, but they needed a quorum of 675 and received only 300 RSVPs, according to local reports.
First, canceling their convention takes away an opportunity to train and motivate Republican activists in Nevada. This should help Democrats to make some major gains in the state over the next two years, while the Republicans are searching for activist leaders.
Second, Nevada is yet another state where Ron Paul and his backers are making a serious play for influence within the party. As the GOP is faring worse at the polls, it is veering sharply to the right, which should reduce the number of moderate voters it can win over the next few election cycles.
Overall, these trends spell major trouble. The GOP will be competitive in fewer states, and it will attract fewer voters in those states. If the Democrats' 50-state strategy pays off and Democrats learn to communicate better (something I'll address more in future weeks), they could seriously marginalize the GOP for the next decade.
[UPDATE: This was originally a stand-alone piece, but there's been so much news on this front that I'm starting a series about the Shrinking GOP. I am retitling this article accordingly.]
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