Shrinking GOP: Is the GOP becoming a regional party?

In June, I would have been the first to say that the GOP's problems this year were just a temporary phenomenon. But suddenly we've been deluged with news that indicated serious long-term problems for the GOP. They have become the Incredible Shrinking GOP.

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I'm not the only one who has claimed that the GOP may lose their grasp on power for the next ten years. The National Committee for an Effective Congress claims that the GOP has been "reduced to a regional party." NCEC suggests that two reasons for Democrats' recent election success are that Democratic incumbents have proven stronger than Republican incumbents, and that open seats strongly favor Democratic pickups (open seats are mostly from Republican retirements, and Democrats are winning more open seats than Republicans).

But NCEC's argument with the farthest-reaching consequences is the argument that the GOP is relying more and more on its regional strength in the South.

When the Republicans gained control of the House in 1994, they held a majority of seats in the Midwest, South and West and 33 of 66 House districts in the Mid-Atlantic states . Clearly, the Republicans were a national party. Moreover, Republicans gained 10 House seats in southern and border states two years later, in 1996. Still, Democrats retained 43% of all southern and border congressional districts after the '96 election.

The outcome of elections since 1996 has exposed a far larger problem for Republicans, than Democrats faced in the South. More than 46% of Republican House seats emanate from southern and border states, possessing only 28% of House seats nationally.

[NCEC has a great graph of Republican House seats by region. Click here to check it out.]

If the Republicans are isolated as a regional party, dominant in the South, competitive in the Midwest but hopelessly outnumbered on both coasts, their chances of regaining a majority of the House in the near future are remote (emphasis added).

I'm not totally on board with this argument yet, but it represents a potential worst-case scenario for the GOP. I believe that the Republicans could be in major trouble, but I don't believe the Democrats are ready to take advantage. Next week, I'll talk about what the Democrats need to do to lay the groundwork for marginalizing the Republican party.

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