Daily Liberal Mapping Project: CD-8

This is the first of nine articles in the Daily Liberal Mapping Project. These articles examine Minnesota's voting patterns precinct by precinct, with data from the 2006 election. Update: see maps for other districts.

In the first edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the 8th Congressional District. CD8, home to Jim Oberstar, is certainly a safe seat for the Congressman this year. However, the district is also crucial for Al Franken.

The district voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2006. Approximately half of the precincts voted over 60% Democratic, and over two-thirds of all precincts voted for at least 50% Democratic. The only stragglers are in the southwest of the district.



Many of the Republican areas in the southwest are willing to split their ticket. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. Franken may thus have an opportunity to pick up more votes in the southwest of the district. On the other hand, he needs to make sure not to lose votes in the northeast.



Turnout in the district is strong, but it's pretty equally strong in both Democratic and Republican areas. Already-strong turnout means it will be hard for Franken to increase Democratic turnout. Of course, if anything could drive Democratic turnout, it's Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. It's unlikely that Republican turnout will decrease, because 2006 was already a pretty low-turnout year.



The final map shows the combined effect of turnout and party preference. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. There is still some additional room for improvement by Franken this year, as Democrats received over 55 percent of the possible vote in very few precincts in 2006. This could be achieved either by higher turnout or a higher proportion of Democratic votes. I have a feeling Franken will be happy for Barack Obama's presence on the ticket, which should help to increase both.

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